Poll: Arizona Voters Polarized on Popular Vote versus Electoral College

Twenty percent of Arizonans believe there was widespread voter fraud, another 20 percent are undecided

PHOENIX (December 19, 2016) —The most recent presidential election has been unlike any other in U.S. history, light on substance and heavy on charged negative rhetoric. Since the election, there has been a high volume of discussion surrounding the popular vote versus Electoral College being the determining factor of the presidential race. According to a recent survey conducted by leading behavior research polling company OH Predictive Insights, Arizona voters are divided on the Electoral College versus popular vote.

In a survey of 700 active registered Democrat, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters across Arizona, based on current active voter registration numbers, Democrats and Republicans were polarized while Independents were split evenly concerning their preference for either the popular vote or Electoral College.

Individuals were asked whether a candidate should be elected through the current Electoral College system or by the popular vote:

Electoral College versus Popular Vote December 7-8, 2016 Results
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Topline
Support who gets the most votes in all 50 States
76%
44%
21%
46%
Support the Electoral college system
17%
45%
71%
46%
Undecided/Not Sure
7%
10%
8%
8%

*Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding

In the past 16 years, Democrats have won the popular vote twice without gaining the presidency. With the most recent events, voters have generated a significant conversation surrounding the possibility of changing the current system.

“The numbers clearly indicate voters are polarized on this issue and reflect the polarization at all levels of government,” said Mike Noble, managing partner of OH Predictive Insights and chief pollster.  “Independents are clearly indifferent on which system they prefer.”

Wes Gullett, partner of OH Predictive Insights and GOP political consultant found it not surprising how polarized Democrats and Republicans are based on the results of the survey. “This survey shows that those who come out on the winning side are satisfied with the current system and those who came up short can taste the sour grapes,” Gullett said.

Individuals were asked if they agreed or disagreed if there was wide spread voter fraud in the most recent presidential election.

Believe there was widespread voter fraud
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Topline
Agree
18%
23%
18%
20%
Disagree
67%
61%
56%
61%
Undecided/Not Sure
15%
16%
26%
20%

*Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding

“I find it alarming that 20 percent of voters believe there was widespread voter fraud and another 20 percent were not sure if there was making a total of 40 percent who were uncomfortable with our recent voting process,” said Mike Noble.

Wes Gullett said, “We’ve got a lot of work to do in the next two years to make sure the public understands that our voting system is secure, honest and transparent. After observing elections here and internationally I’m confident we have the best election system in the world, but clearly respondents to this survey are unconvinced.”

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on December 7th thru the 8th, 2016, from a 2016 active registered voter sample. The sample size was 700 completed surveys, with a MoE of  3.7%

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